Model Spotlight: Species Distribution Models for three PEI bird Species at Risk

In 2020, the Atlantic Canada Conservation Data Centre (AC CDC) was contracted by the Government of Prince Edward Island to use LiDAR for the development of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for three bird Species at Risk: Canada Warbler, Olive-sided Flycatcher and Eastern Wood-Pewee.

Canopy height, canopy closure, high-contrast edge and topographic position index were calculated from 1m digital elevation model (DEM) and 1m digital surface model (DSM) products recently generated by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) from 2008 LiDAR data. Other metrics were included in the model.

Species occurrence data were compiled from the AC CDC database, the Island Nature Trust, eBird and the PEI Nature Tracker and filtered for use in models.

Models were developed and run in MaxEnt and best models were selected using backwards, stepwise parameter selection. Final models had high AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; a measure of the discriminatory power of the model), predictor response curves were ecologically reasonable (i.e., they agreed with known relationships about habitat use) and high-level reviews of predictive surface outputs (the mapping of potential habitat) by three AC CDC biologists indicated that surfaces generally showed appropriate ecological patterns across the island.

Model details: